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Newsletter Issue #551: Can They Really Be So Dumb?

It seems that some members of the media and the industry research business never miss finding ways to top themselves when it comes to abject stupidity. You have to wonder whether their readers actually believe such nonsense, or become attack dogs, hoping to knock a little sense into their thick skulls.

One particularly lame pronouncement came from one Sarah Rotman Epps of Forrester Research, who avers with a straight face that some 3.5 million tablet-based computers will be sold in the U.S. in all of 2010. Does anyone find something seriously flawed in this pronouncement?

You see, most of the two million sales of the iPad reported in the first two months since it went on sale come from the U.S. I suppose the skeptics would assert that these are early adopters, and once that demand is satisfied, sales will inevitably tank.

But, you see, the sales momentum has yet to stop, or even slow down for that matter. If you want to buy an iPad today here in the U.S., you might be lucky to find one at an Apple Store or perhaps a Best Buy. But I’d call that a fluke. Apple’s online store still lists delivery times as between seven and ten business days for all models. This clearly indicates that demand continues to outstrip supply, so unless Apple has suddenly stopped building near as many iPads as they were just a few weeks ago, Forrester has it all wrong.

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